This Asteroid Might Make Impact With Earth in 2032
Clip: Season 52 | 3m 33sVideo has Closed Captions
An asteroid is on a collision course with Earth, possibly making impact in 2032.
An asteroid is on a collision course with Earth, possibly making impact in 2032. In the unlikely event that Asteroid 2024 YR does strike Earth, it would generate an explosion equal to nearly 8 million tons of TNT. That’s 500 times the power of the atomic bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima during WWII. But there’s no cause for alarm: Space agencies estimate there’s about a 2% chance of impact.
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This Asteroid Might Make Impact With Earth in 2032
Clip: Season 52 | 3m 33sVideo has Closed Captions
An asteroid is on a collision course with Earth, possibly making impact in 2032. In the unlikely event that Asteroid 2024 YR does strike Earth, it would generate an explosion equal to nearly 8 million tons of TNT. That’s 500 times the power of the atomic bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima during WWII. But there’s no cause for alarm: Space agencies estimate there’s about a 2% chance of impact.
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Learn Moreabout PBS online sponsorship(dramatic music) - [Narrator] An asteroid might be on a collision course to hit Earth in 2032.
But what exactly are the odds of disaster?
And is there anything we can do about it?
Asteroid 2024 YR4 measures between 130 and 330 feet long.
It was spotted during its orbit around the sun traveling away from Earth in late December, 2024.
Thanks to ATLAS, a four-telescope alert system that identifies Near-Earth Objects.
Space agencies estimate that there's about a 2% chance that the asteroid will hit Earth in December 2032.
But as astronomers continue to track the asteroid and refine their calculations, they say that probability is likely to drop to zero.
After astronomers discovered the asteroid Apophis in 2004, they calculated it had about a 2.7% chance of colliding with Earth.
But after months of observations, scientists were able to update their predictions.
They determined that it'll pass very close to Earth in 2029, but the chances of collision are now zero.
They expect the same thing to happen with Asteroid 2024 YR4.
But in the unlikely event that 2024 YR4 does strike Earth, it would impact at a speed of around 38,000 miles per hour and generate an explosion equal to nearly 8 million tons of TNT.
That's 500 times the power of the atomic bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima during World War II.
It wouldn't be big enough to kickstart a mass extinction, like the one that led to the end of the dinosaurs.
That asteroid was about 150 to 250 times larger.
But it would have the potential to destroy a city, or if it lands in the ocean, which scientists think is more likely, the resulting tsunami could devastate nearby coasts.
The damage from the explosion on land could extend roughly as far as a 30-mile radius from the impact site.
NASA astronomers have come up with a "risk corridor," an area where impact would be most likely, given the asteroids current path.
This area goes from northern South America, across the Atlantic Ocean, to Africa, the Arabian Sea, and southern Asia.
As the asteroid continues on its orbit around the Sun, it'll begin to fade from view of Earth-based telescopes by mid-April 2025.
It won't be visible again until mid-2028, at which point, astronomers will be able to calculate a more accurate trajectory.
But what if the likelihood of impact goes up, and not down, as astronomers predict?
What then?
In 2022, NASA successfully crashed a spacecraft into an asteroid to change its trajectory.
Space agencies could try and do something similar with Asteroid 2024 YR4 to change its collision course.
This strategy is still experimental, but it's a promising way to defend our planet.
Although astronomers think the risk of Asteroid 2024 YR4 actually hitting Earth is very low, it highlights a potential new trend.
As telescopes and cameras have gotten better at finding objects wandering around the solar system, this type of warning will likely become more common.
But don't take that as a harbinger of doom.
Just because we're better at detecting potentially hazardous asteroids doesn't mean our risk is any greater.
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